I'm with Kevin on picking home town hero John Morrow to win the Open. I don't think that Folkestad, Murray, Donoho, or any of the old-school guys should be ruled out though. Lake levels are like they've not been for the last 20+ years.
Aaron is my sentimental favorite for the FLW, but I'd put my money on Davy Hite, he's always up for the big tournaments.